It’s long been speculated that Elon Musk’s outspoken right-wing political stance has taken a serious toll on Tesla’s brand and sales. Over the years, Musk’s public support for conservative figures—including his endorsement of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and involvement with Trump’s administration’s so-called “DOGE” initiative—has increasingly alienated segments of his once-loyal customer base. Now, a new study suggests that these political moves may have had a measurable, negative impact on Tesla’s bottom line.
Researchers from Yale University and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) have released a study identifying what they describe as a “causal effect of Musk’s partisan activities on Tesla sales.” In simpler terms, they believe Musk’s political transformation directly led to a sharp decline in Tesla’s popularity—particularly in areas that traditionally lean Democratic.
To uncover this trend, the team examined brand sentiment and vehicle registration data across U.S. counties from 2018 to 2025, focusing on differences between Democratic and Republican regions before and after October 2022—the month Musk finalized his purchase of Twitter (now X). That acquisition, as many will remember, marked the beginning of Musk’s very public shift from a relatively neutral tech figure to a loud, right-wing provocateur online.
According to the researchers, that shift appears to have triggered what they call the “Musk Partisan Effect.” Their findings are striking:
“Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67–83% higher—equivalent to 1 to 1.26 million additional vehicles sold.”
In addition, the study found that Musk’s political activity indirectly boosted competitors’ sales. As disenchanted consumers abandoned Tesla, sales of other electric and hybrid vehicles rose between 17–22%, driven by buyers seeking alternatives that better align with their values. The researchers argue that this substitution effect has also slowed California’s progress toward meeting its zero-emission vehicle goals.
Their analysis shows that, prior to Musk’s political pivot, Tesla registrations were rising steadily nationwide, mirroring broader EV market growth. However, by mid-2022, that trajectory shifted:
“Until mid-2022, new Tesla registrations in the United States were generally increasing and following trends similar to hybrids and other EVs,” the researchers wrote. “After mid-2022, Tesla sales leveled off, while other EVs continued their upward climb.”
The divide becomes even clearer when political demographics are considered. In Republican-leaning counties, Tesla sales grew gradually but consistently. Meanwhile, in Democratic-leaning regions—once the company’s strongest markets—sales plateaued and, in some areas, even began to fall.
While the study acknowledges that other factors—such as limited new model releases, rising EV competition, and shifting consumer demand—may also play a role, the data strongly suggests that Musk’s personal politics have become a major liability for Tesla’s brand image and growth trajectory.
Tesla’s sales have shown some volatility, including a brief rebound in October (likely due to expiring EV tax credits), but researchers expect long-term challenges to persist as Musk continues to polarize public opinion.
This is not the first study to explore how Musk’s political commentary impacts his business ventures. Previous analyses have found similar patterns in consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior. Yet, this new Yale study provides one of the clearest pieces of evidence yet that the billionaire’s political identity may be undermining the company he built.
When asked to comment on the findings, xAI, Musk’s AI company, responded tersely: “Legacy Media Lies.” Tesla, which dissolved its public relations department years ago, did not respond to requests for comment.